AFC Divisional Round: Chiefs Win Again in AFC’s Newest “Rivalry”

The Bills and the Chiefs. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Two of the AFC’s better teams for the past three seasons. If you listen to some talking heads, they’ll tell you we are seeing the 2020’s version of Brady vs. Manning. In some senses, they are correct. These are two elite QB’s who will be the face of their franchise for the next decade.

 

However, when you delve deeper into this “rivalry”, you’ll see that it’s not really much of a rivalry at all. The Chiefs are 4-3 against the Bills since these two QB’s have been at the helm. That sounds like a balanced matchup that has all the makings of a great feud. However, the Chiefs are 3-0 in the postseason against the Bills during that stretch. Sure, Buffalo is 3-1 against Kansas City during the regular season, but who cares about that? This is pro football, where the only thing that truly matters is how you produce in the playoffs. 

 

Sunday’s Divisional Round match-up stuck to the postseason script these two teams have perfected in the past. It was a close game, with lead changes going back and forth throughout. At one point, both offenses looked unstoppable. Later, both defenses were making plays all over the field. However, in the end, part three of this saga ended just as the first two did, with Kansas City moving on and a bunch of sad, cold Buffalo fans digging their cars out of the snow for a quiet ride home. 

 

While it is unfair to pin a team’s success or failure completely on the quarterback, the NFL in 2023 is a totally QB driven league, and for better or worse, it’s not going to change any time soon. While both QB’s played well this game, Mahomes was simply better. Josh Allen had a respectable 86.1 QB rating. He completed 66% of his passes, throwing for one touchdown. He didn’t throw an interception, and he hit nine different receivers throughout the game. He ran for  72 yards and two more touchdowns. All in all, it was a great performance.

 

But it wasn’t great enough. Patrick Mahomes had a ridiculous 131.6 QB rating. He completed 74% of his passes, throwing for two touchdowns, also didn’t throw an interception, and hit eight receivers. His legs didn’t take him as far as Allen’s did, but they didn’t need to, because as much as we want to put all of this on the quarterbacks, the difference in this game was the running backs. 

 

Under Andy Reid, Kansas City has never been known for their running game. Running Backs are really just 4th or 5th receivers in any Andy Reid system. However, in this game (and the back half of KC’s season) the running backs have been the true stars. Isaiah Pacheco had 97 yards rushing on 15 attempts, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire complimented him with 31 additional yards on the ground, including a massive 28 yard rush near the end of the game. 

 

As the game wore on, Buffalo’s offensive opportunities were limited, thanks to KC’s ability to control the ball on the ground. They did have a crucial fumble out of the back of the end zone which gave Buffalo some hope, but their own inept rushing game made them one dimensional. Josh Allen is an amazing scrambler, but it’s not his JOB to run. The people who are supposed to carry that load, James Cook and Ty Johnson, didn’t do nearly enough. Their numbers were good, but not great, and when you’re facing Kansas City in the playoffs (even with home field advantage), good isn’t good enough. 

 

Now, let's talk real quick about the scapegoat: Tyler Bass. Late in the fourth quarter, Tyler Bass missed a field goal that would have tied the game at 27-27. Many people want to point to this as the reason Buffalo lost the game. This couldn’t be further from the truth. Even if Tyler Bass makes that field goal, the game is tied and Kansas City has 1:47 to get down the field and score. 

 

Do you know how much time 1:47 is for the Chiefs offense? In the 2021 divisional game against the Bills, the Chiefs drove the field in 13 seconds to get into field goal range and win. Extrapolating that number, Kansas City could have gotten into field goal range 8 times. The truth is the Chiefs won that game the moment Bass stepped out onto the field. 4th & 9 isn’t a good situation, but it’s still a better situation than giving Mahomes the ball with 1:47 left in a tied game. If Buffalo goes for that fourth down, maybe they get it and maybe they don’t, but to quote Herm Edwards, you play to win the game. Buffalo played to tie the game, and that ultimately cost them. The headline is “Allen vs Mahomes” , not “Bass vs. Butker.” Give your quarterback the chance to win the game. Otherwise, you’ll never get over the hump, and this will never be a truly epic rivalry. 

 

Next week, Kansas City heads to Baltimore for the AFC Championship game.